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2023 Market Recap

Dear Clients, Friends, and Colleagues,

I hope you had a wonderful holiday. Ahead of our in-depth 4th Quarter market report, I wanted to share some exciting updates with you and our 2023 market recap.

Isabel welcomed her baby daughter Layla on November 6. Of course Layla is adorable, and both are doing great. Isabel is back in action next week, albeit in a bit more limited capacity. I'm thrilled to be able to share in this new chapter with her.

My brood is doing well. We are applying to kindergarten for Teddy (4.5 y.o.), and Cece (16 m.o.) is busy exploring and learning from big bro. It's a special gift every day hearing what will come out of both of their mouths. I am gearing up for my 20th Yale Reunion, and just celebrated 10 years in real estate.

While 2023 was a challenging year for real estate, characterized by high mortgage rates, low inventory, high inflation and lingering recession apprehensions, I was extremely proud of what our team accomplished. We obtained several building-record sales for our sellers and negotiated some great deals on behalf of our buyers. With rates on the downslide and economic indicators looking up at the end of the year, there is much cause for optimism in 2024. We recently hired a full-time marketing associate and are working with a top coach to further improve our team's operations, so we can deliver a better real estate experience for you. We are bracing ourselves for a busy year!

Thank you to our amazing clients, colleagues, family, and friends for your support this year. We wish you a happy, prosperous, and healthy 2024!

Prices softened in 2023, but it was not the drop that would be expected looking simply at low demand and high interest rates, as low inventory acted to stabilize price. Not counting 2020 when the market was halted for several months, in 2023 total supply was the lowest since 2017 and contracts signed were at a 10-year low. So there were no massive shifts in price or discounts, just a quiet market.

The biggest trend we saw was a jump in all-cash deals, at times amounting to more than two-thirds of all deals. We also saw an increased premium on renovated versus unrenovated homes, which could have been driven by the cost and time of renovations in a rising inflation environment, but also by the lack of renovated inventory on the market.

As we head into 2024, there are several factors to consider that will ultimately shape the market. Interest rates are expected to drop and inflation seems to be under control. With the looming election, things can be hard to predict, but the 18-month slowdown in transactions means that there are buyers and sellers out there who are ready to make a move. Lower rates will hopefully bring back buyers, especially those in the lower-end of the market. It could also mean more supply since many would-be sellers have been on the sidelines to keep their their low-interest loans and facing lackluster options once they sold.

Stay tuned for our in-depth analysis of 4th Quarter data, coming mid-month.

In the last 2 months of 2023, the average weekly 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. On jumbo loans, rates are currently around 6.25%. While there is still some uncertainty, we expect mortgage rates to continue to decline in 2024 with the Fed indicating 0.75% of cuts are still on the way. Currently, we are seeing non-conforming rates in the low 6% range (before points and relationship discounts), which is a far cry from earlier this Fall.


Hear It From Our Clients!

"Isil and her team helped us sell our parents' Upper East Side co-op in a market that was becoming increasingly buyer-friendly. They worked tirelessly to prepare and price an apartment that was in serious disrepair as it had not been renovated in over 50 years. They expertly marketed the property to qualified buyers and worked closely with us through a successful negotiation that turned multiple lowball offers into an at-asking sale. We would, without reservation, recommend Isil and her team to anyone looking for a real estate agent in New York."

- Thor & Andy, Sellers of a Carnegie

Hill Coop


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