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UP, DOWN, EVEN: Market Metrics

UP, DOWN, EVEN: Market Metrics

While the data suggests that the Manhattan market continues to lag, the reality is much of the market (namely co-ops) seems to be bouncing back from last year’s slump with positive results in the first quarter. The surplus in new development inventory continues to depress condo prices in both new development and resale, which is bringing down the overall market outlook. Marketwide, average and median prices showed a decline, but prices for resale co-ops actually remained even with Q1 2018, and saw a 3% increase in both median sale price and median PPSF compared to Q4 2018. Closings declined by more than 5% Y-O-Y due mostly to double digit drops in condo closings (co-op closings declined a minimal 2%). The relatively strong numbers for the co-op and $1-2M markets in Manhattan is consistent with what we’ve seen on the ground as activity is significantly higher, and demand is stronger compared to the second half of 2018.

Similarly in Brooklyn, marketwide numbers are a bit misleading. While overall median prices have dropped, this is due to an ongoing shift of market activity to traditionally lower-priced neighborhoods. This trend pushed sale prices up in those areas yet again this quarter, but brought overall borough-wide sale prices down by 5% compared to last year. The total share of sales priced over $750,000 fell by 6% this quarter, while sales in Bedford-Stuyvesant, Crown Heights, Prospect Lefferts Gardens & Bushwick had twice the market share versus Q1 2018. Closings were also down, largely attributable to a six-year low in the condo market and a steep drop of new development closings, but the co-op market has remained stable with both closings and contracts signed essentially even year-over-year. Our prognosis is a stable market in traditionally higher-priced neighborhoods with continued scarcity of inventory, and a dramatic increase in prices and activity at the lower-end of the market as overall demand in Brooklyn remains strong.

Take a look below at a breakdown of the Manhattan and Brooklyn markets in Q4 by both segment and price.

Download our full report here.

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