UP, DOWN, EVEN: Market Metrics

UP, DOWN, EVEN: Market Metrics

With contracts up and number of new listings down (relative to both Q3 and Q4 2017), Q4 in Manhattan seemed to signal a normalizing market after a lagging Q2 and Q3 where we saw an adjustment in prices and lower transaction volume. Lower prices (median sale price down more than 2% Y-o-Y and median PPSF down more than 4%) finally spurred buyers into action starting around November which combined with lower levels of new inventory, has led to greater absorption at the end of the year. We expect further normalizing in the market in 2019 especially with interest rates having dipped to levels not seen in the past year.

Brooklyn remained stable through 2018 as limited resale inventory continues to keep pricing strong. While median sale prices decreased slightly across all of the sub-$2M strata of the market, Brooklyn’s overall median sale price was down just 1% year-over-year. Brooklyn resale inventory was also extremely low in all four quarters of 2017, hitting a 5-year record low in Q4 2017. This resulted in an uncommonly high percentage of bidding wars and over-ask sale prices. As inventory levels normalized over the course of 2018, buyer urgency has decreased, and the seemingly meteoric rise in prices the borough has seen over the past few years has been curbed by the 2018 market. However, another factor in the slight downward shift in prices came from a continuing trend of increased market activity in lower priced areas, as buyers seek value in neighborhoods that traditionally held far less market share than “prime” northern and western Brooklyn.

Below is our breakdown of marketwide trends in Manhattan and Brooklyn.